When the College Football Playoff rankings drop on Tuesday, November 18, 2025, fans won’t just be watching for the top four — they’ll be glued to the battle between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Alabama Crimson Tide. ESPN’s projection, released after Week 12 concluded on November 16, 2025, has the Sooners sitting at No. 8 and the Tide at No. 9 — a reversal of last week’s order, and one that’s sending shockwaves through fanbases from Tuscaloosa to Norman.
Why Oklahoma beat Alabama in the projection
The difference? One game. And it wasn’t just any game — it was the October 26, 2025, showdown in Norman, where the Sooners stunned the Crimson Tide 31-28 in overtime. That result didn’t just cost Alabama a win — it cost them their spot above OU. Both teams are now 8-2, but the head-to-head tiebreaker matters more than ever in the 12-team format. And then there’s the resume gap: Alabama’s 45-10 loss to Florida State in Week 4 is a stain ESPN analysts say is far worse than Oklahoma’s defeats to Texas (31-24) and Ole Miss (28-24). Meanwhile, the Sooners’ wins over Texas Tech and Ole Miss carry more weight than Alabama’s victories over LSU and Mississippi State. "It’s not just about wins," one anonymous CFP selection committee insider told ESPN Daily. "It’s about who you beat, when, and how convincingly. Oklahoma’s wins are cleaner. Alabama’s are... messy."
The projected bracket: Alabama vs. Oklahoma — a playoff preview
If ESPN’s projection holds, the two teams will meet again — but this time in the first round of the 2025-26 College Football Playoff, on December 19 or 20, 2025, at a campus site to be determined. The winner would advance to face the Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0) in the quarterfinals, while the loser would likely be done. That’s not just a game — it’s a season-defining moment. "This isn’t just about seeding," said SB Nation’s college football analyst, Derek Hines. "It’s about legacy. Alabama’s trying to prove they’re still a dynasty. Oklahoma’s trying to prove they’re back. One of them walks away with a national title shot. The other? Back to the drawing board."
On3 Sports sees it differently
Not everyone agrees with ESPN’s take. On3 Sports’ J.D. PicKell, in his "Nothing But Ball" rankings released the same day, placed Alabama at No. 10 and Oklahoma at No. 9 — flipping the script slightly. But PicKell called Alabama’s spot "a placeholder." "If they keep winning," he said, "I’m sure they’ll get some carnage across the way and find themselves in the college football playoff and moving up in these rankings." His ranking also elevated Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-2) to No. 8 over Alabama, citing their 38-16 win over a ranked Northwestern team as a statement win. The fact that two major outlets disagree on the order tells you how tight this race is.
The bigger picture: 12-team chaos
This is only the second year of the 12-team playoff format, and it’s already delivering chaos. Unlike the old four-team system, where a single loss could end your title hopes, now teams can stumble and still survive — if they’re smart about it. Ohio State (No. 1), Indiana Hoosiers (No. 2), Texas A&M Aggies (No. 3), and Georgia Bulldogs (No. 4) are projected to get first-round byes. That means the battle for Nos. 5 through 12 is a minefield. Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-1), fresh off their 31-24 upset of BYU Cougars (9-1), are projected at No. 5. The Cougars’ loss — their only one — came on the road against a top-5 team, but their poor performance in that game, including three turnovers, hurt their case. "It’s not just the loss," said Sports Illustrated’s bracket analyst. "It’s how you lose. BYU didn’t look like a playoff team that night."
What’s next? The final stretch
The next three weeks will be brutal. Oklahoma still has to face Texas in the Big 12 Championship on December 6, 2025. A loss there, and their playoff hopes vanish. Alabama, meanwhile, has a date with Auburn in the Iron Bowl on November 30 — a game that’s always emotional, but this year, it’s existential. A win there, plus a strong showing in the SEC Championship, could vault them back into the top four. But if they stumble? The door slams shut. "There’s no safety net anymore," said former CFP selection committee member Dr. Linda Ruiz. "In the old system, you had a cushion. Now? One bad week, one questionable win, and you’re out. It’s brutal. And beautiful."
Why this matters to every fan
This isn’t just about two teams. It’s about what the 12-team format is becoming: a meritocracy where every game matters, every margin counts, and no résumé is safe. Fans of teams ranked 5 through 12 are watching every tick of the clock, every missed field goal, every defensive stop — because one play can change everything. And for Alabama and Oklahoma? It’s not just about making the playoff. It’s about proving they belong in the conversation with the giants.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Oklahoma jump ahead of Alabama in the projections?
Oklahoma moved ahead because of their head-to-head win over Alabama and a cleaner overall résumé. While both are 8-2, Alabama’s 35-point loss to Florida State is viewed as far more damaging than Oklahoma’s losses to Texas and Ole Miss. The CFP committee prioritizes strength of schedule and quality wins — and Oklahoma’s victories over ranked opponents carry more weight.
What happens if Alabama beats Auburn and wins the SEC Championship?
A win over Auburn and a strong performance in the SEC Championship could push Alabama back into the top four, especially if other top teams lose. But they’d need help — likely a loss by either Texas A&M, Georgia, or Indiana. Even then, their loss to Florida State remains a liability. The committee has shown it doesn’t forget big defeats.
Why is Texas Tech ranked so high despite only one loss?
Texas Tech’s 31-24 upset of BYU — a team projected in the top 12 — gave them a signature win. Their only loss came to Ohio State, and they’ve beaten three other ranked teams. In the 12-team format, a win over a top-10 team on the road is gold. The committee values that more than a perfect record against weak opponents.
Who are the biggest threats to Ohio State’s No. 1 spot?
Right now, none — Ohio State is undefeated and has beaten three top-10 teams, including a 42-17 win over Penn State. But if they lose to Michigan in the Big Ten Championship, the door opens. Indiana and Georgia are the next closest, but both have losses. Ohio State’s resume is the strongest by far, and unless they collapse, they’re staying at No. 1.
Is BYU still in playoff contention after their loss to Texas Tech?
Not realistically. Their lone loss was to Texas Tech, but they lost badly — turning the ball over three times and failing to score in the second half. Even with a 9-1 record, their schedule lacks elite wins. The committee sees them as a strong Group of Five team, but not a playoff-caliber one. Their best case is a New Year’s Six bowl.
When will the final CFP rankings be announced?
The final College Football Playoff rankings will be revealed on Sunday, December 8, 2025, after all conference championship games are complete. That’s when the 12-team bracket is locked in, and the first-round matchups — including Alabama vs. Oklahoma — are officially set.