At 12:00 AM UTC on Tuesday, October 28, 2025, Hurricane Melissa became one of the most powerful Atlantic storms ever recorded—175 mph sustained winds, gusts hitting 215 mph, and a central pressure of just 909 millibars. The eye of the storm hovered just 150 miles from Kingston, Jamaica, its slow crawl at 2-3 mph turning what could have been a brief blow into a nightmare of prolonged destruction. Residents here have seen hurricanes before. But this? This feels different. The air is thick. The silence before the wind is louder than any siren.
Why This Storm Is Unusually Dangerous
Most Category 5 hurricanes race forward at 15-20 mph. They’re brutal, yes—but they’re over quickly. Hurricane Melissa is moving at a crawl, like a predator stalking its prey. That means Jamaica isn’t just in the path—it’s trapped under the storm’s heaviest rain bands and most violent winds for hours, possibly days. Weather Underground and AccuWeather both confirm: no weakening in sight. The 909-millibar pressure reading places Melissa among the top five most intense Atlantic hurricanes since reliable records began in 1960. Only Hurricane Wilma (2005) and Hurricane Allen (1980) came close.
The storm’s size is deceptive. Tropical storm-force winds stretch over 220 miles from the center. That means even places like Montego Bay and Port Antonio—not directly under the eye—are already seeing downed trees, power lines snapping, and flooding. The Hurricane Melissa system is a beast of both wind and water.
Storm Surge and Rainfall: The Hidden Killers
Everyone talks about the wind. But the real killers? The water. Forecasters warn of a storm surge between 15 and 20 feet along Jamaica’s southern and eastern coasts—enough to swallow entire neighborhoods in Portmore and Bodden Town. The Jamaica Meteorological Service issued an unprecedented red alert, urging residents to move to higher ground. “This isn’t a drill,” said Chief Meteorologist Lorraine Grant in a live briefing. “We’ve never seen a system this intense this close to our shores with this kind of persistence.”
Rainfall totals are expected to exceed 12 inches in mountainous regions, with localized downpours of 18 inches possible. That’s more than Jamaica’s average annual rainfall in just 48 hours. Landslides are a terrifying certainty. In 2012, Hurricane Michael—far weaker—killed 11 people in the Blue Mountains from mudslides. This storm could make that look mild.
What’s Happening on the Ground
By 6:00 AM local time, power outages had already spread across 85% of Kingston. Schools and hospitals have shut down. The port is closed. Emergency shelters are filling up fast. At the Norman Manley International Airport, workers were seen boarding up windows with plywood, their faces lit by flashlights as rain began to patter against the tarmac.
“I’ve lived here 72 years,” said 78-year-old Elton Blake, huddled in a concrete basement with his granddaughter. “I’ve seen Ivan, I’ve seen Dean. But this? This one’s got teeth. And it’s not blinking.”
Meanwhile, the U.S. Coast Guard has deployed two cutters to the Windward Passage to assist with evacuations. The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency activated its regional response team, with medical supplies and water purification units en route from Trinidad and Barbados.
The Bigger Picture: Climate and Catastrophe
Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) note that Melissa’s rapid intensification—gaining 65 mph in wind speed in just 18 hours—is consistent with trends seen over the past decade. Warmer sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean, now averaging 2.5°F above the 30-year norm, are fueling these extreme events. The Atlantic basin has produced five Category 5 storms since 2017. In the 30 years before that? Only three.
“We’re not just seeing more storms,” said Dr. Elena Ruiz, a climatologist at the University of the West Indies. “We’re seeing storms that behave differently. Slower. Stronger. More unpredictable. That’s the new normal.”
What Comes Next?
The current forecast track shows Hurricane Melissa turning north-northeast toward the Cayman Islands and possibly the Bahamas by Wednesday evening. But with the storm moving at walking speed, even a slight shift could send it directly over Jamaica again—or stall it entirely. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model shows a 30% chance of the system lingering over Jamaica for over 36 hours.
Coastal communities from Havana to Nassau are on high alert. Florida’s emergency management teams are preparing for potential evacuations along the Keys. The storm’s outer bands could reach the Florida coast by Friday, bringing heavy rain and dangerous rip currents.
Why This Matters to You
Even if you live thousands of miles away, Hurricane Melissa is a warning. It’s not just about Jamaica. It’s about what happens when climate change, ocean warmth, and atmospheric stagnation collide. Insurance premiums in coastal states are already rising. Supply chains for coffee, sugar, and bananas—Jamaica’s top exports—will be disrupted. Global food prices could creep up. And if this happens again next year? And the year after?
We’re not just watching a storm. We’re watching the future arrive.
Frequently Asked Questions
How long will Hurricane Melissa affect Jamaica?
Current forecasts suggest Jamaica could experience hurricane-force winds for 18 to 36 hours, depending on the storm’s exact track. The slow forward speed—just 2-3 mph—means the most dangerous conditions may linger over the same areas for an entire day or more, significantly increasing the risk of structural damage and flooding.
What areas are most at risk for storm surge?
Southern and eastern coastal zones—including Kingston, Portmore, and the parishes of St. Thomas and Portland—are at highest risk, with surge estimates of 15 to 20 feet. Low-lying areas near bays and river mouths, such as the Rio Cobre estuary, could see inland flooding extending over a mile. The combination of high tide and powerful onshore winds makes this surge especially deadly.
Is this hurricane tied to climate change?
Yes. Sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean are currently 2.5°F above the 30-year average, providing unprecedented energy for storms. Melissa’s rapid intensification—from tropical storm to Category 5 in under 24 hours—is a pattern increasingly seen since 2017. While no single storm is caused by climate change, the frequency and severity of events like this are directly linked to global warming.
What should people in Florida do?
Even if Melissa doesn’t make landfall in Florida, its outer bands could bring 4-8 inches of rain and tropical-storm-force winds to the Keys and southern peninsula by Friday. Residents should prepare for power outages, potential flooding in low-lying areas, and dangerous surf. The National Hurricane Center recommends reviewing evacuation routes and securing outdoor items now.
Why are the wind gusts so much higher than sustained winds?
Sustained winds are measured over one minute at 10 meters above ground; gusts are short bursts of higher speed, often caused by turbulence in the eyewall. A 215 mph gust in a 175 mph storm means the most violent pockets of wind are nearly 25% stronger than the average—enough to rip roofs off, snap large trees, and hurl debris at lethal speeds. These gusts are what cause the most structural damage.
How does Hurricane Melissa compare to past storms?
With 175 mph winds and a 909-millibar pressure, Melissa ranks among the top five Atlantic hurricanes on record. Only Wilma (2005), Allen (1980), Gilbert (1988), and the 1935 Labor Day hurricane were stronger. It’s the most intense storm to threaten Jamaica since Hurricane Gilbert in 1988—and the first Category 5 to form so close to the island since reliable satellite tracking began.